Determinants of Public Revenues in Algeria: An Econometric Analysis of the Role of Economic Growth, Fiscal Discipline, and Oil Prices over the Period 2000–2025
Trad Mourad1* 
, Laouar Nouara2
Abstract. This study examines the determinants of government revenues in Algeria, with particular emphasis on the roles of economic growth, fiscal discipline, and oil prices over the period 2000–2025. The study employs an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to investigate both the short-run and long-run relationships among the variables. The empirical analysis is based on annual data, and a series of diagnostic and stability tests are conducted to assess the reliability and adequacy of the estimated model. The bounds testing approach confirms the existence of a long-run cointegration relationship among government revenues, economic growth, fiscal discipline, and oil prices. The estimated error correction model further indicates a significant adjustment mechanism toward long-run equilibrium following short-run deviations. The results highlight the importance of economic and fiscal conditions, together with fluctuations in oil prices, in explaining the dynamics of government revenues in Algeria. These findings provide useful implications for fiscal policy and revenue-management strategies, particularly in the context of Algeria's dependence on hydrocarbon revenues. The study concludes that strengthening fiscal discipline, supporting sustainable economic growth, and reducing vulnerability to oil-price fluctuations are important for improving the stability and sustainability of public revenues.
Keywords: government revenues, economic growth, fiscal discipline, oil prices, ARDL, Algeria