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ANCIENT LAND 2026
The Impact of Global Economic Fragmentation on Foreign Direct Investment Flows: An Empirical Analysis
Nurlan Maharramov 
Abstract. Global economic fragmentation has emerged as an increasingly important feature of the contemporary international economic system, affecting trade relations, investment decisions, and the geographical organization of global production. Growing geopolitical tensions, trade policy uncertainty, strategic competition, and disruptions in international supply chains have encouraged firms and governments to reconsider the traditional patterns of economic integration. This study examines the impact of global economic fragmentation on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows and investigates whether increasing geopolitical and economic uncertainty contributes to changes in international investment patterns. The study adopts a quantitative empirical approach based on international macroeconomic and investment indicators and considers the relationship between FDI flows, geopolitical risk, economic growth, inflation, trade openness, and other relevant determinants. The analysis is designed to distinguish between a potential overall decline in international investment and the geographical reallocation of investment towards economies perceived as relatively more stable and strategically important. The study contributes to the growing literature on geoeconomic fragmentation by linking geopolitical developments with the location and dynamics of foreign direct investment. The findings are expected to provide a clearer understanding of how the restructuring of global economic relations affects international investment and to identify the broader implications of fragmentation for economic stability, investment policy, and the future configuration of the global economy.
Keywords: global economic fragmentation, foreign direct investment, geopolitical risk, international investment, global trade, economic uncertainty, supply chains
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